Friday, December 24, 2010

GOLD

Interesting how so many people think Soros' recent surging interest in GOLD ETF's is in some way indicative of his concern for his own wealth preservation and worry that other investments are simply too risky.

It is nothing of the sort, its a setup. It is the very same reason why GLD was created in the first place; to serve as a pressure release valve whenever the interest in real gold became too much. Its a mechanism for dumping massive amounts of paper gold into the market in an attempt to supress the gold price.

Soros is simply helping his fiat currency masters. He knows how his recent comments that gold is in a bubble would be interpreted all the while adding to his massive investment in GLD.

This gold runup will end and do not be surprised if Soros fund surprisingly is timed to be selling at that precise moment the peak is formed.

The man's timing has always been impeccable, too impeccable if you ask me. Don't try following the insiders too long, there's a trap laid out for you if you play the paper gold game too long.

I still see gold falling below 1000 and DOW getting crushed far below 10K when it is all said and done, no matter how spectacular this run has been.

Gold and related

1/ Gold and silver move down, (1180 - 24), then spike to new highs (1650 - 55), in late April. Then Rangebound without even profit taking for some unexplained reason till late June. Then set at 6000 - 600 in August - see below.
Copper moves 25% higher on Chinese demands then drops dramatically at years end.
Calls for OPEC increases in supply will fall on deaf ears as the oil producers are buying PM's quietly.
China increase demand 0.5 mil/day.
Oil moves to $120/barrel by mid-summer even after the President opens up the reserves.
Oil drops back to $75 by years end after economy collapses and demand drops also.
{With the resigning of ME Oil contracts with China; WTI, Bakken, Alaskan NS and other US Oil will move to $180/barrel in mid-2011. Full blown depression then.}

2/ Gas and Food prices, (which experienced a 7% increase in 2010), move steadily higher at a 1%/month until July when they move to nearly 2%/month. The CPI lie is exposed, QE2 is fingered and the Bernank is let go in early August. (Timmy G had already resigned.)
Interest rates are increased progressively throughout the year starting in April.
House prices crash on higher mortage rates, ARM resets, and increased foreclosure supply.

3/ Foreign treasury buyers continue to pull out in increasing numbers.
Municipal Bond auctions are reported to be bought by the FED and no one else.
China exits US treasuries and leads the set up of a new reserve currency.

4/EU splits essentially north south in May. Ireland goes it alone right off the batt.
Then in August the Southern EU returns to individual nation status.

5/Fed reacts by increasing Dollar printing.
President Obama signs a Presidential order, (later known as the August surprise as a joke), setting price controls and fixing exchange rates and PM prices.

6/US Depression is now understood as having arrived.

7/CNBC program is cancelled.
Nader is let go.

Chinese led MARS MISSION 2022 is announced.

70% of democratic nations have replaced their leaders by end of 2012.

BuyTheDips

So much for the IMF 304 tonnes gold sale, it was that giant sucking sound.
More likely Chinna just sucked it all up with barely a ripple in the gold market.
Barrick has put a floor in the POG by closing their hedge book.
But what a buying opportunity was created on the spike down early this morning.

This morning was a head fake in the PM's another buying opportunity as it climbs "the wall of worry."

Rince and Repeat

You just gota put da bears on i-g-n-o-r-e

"Ditto" and fade the $925 dipships

Once again just another beautiful buying opportunity

SRS really, really looks cheap

Rinse and Repeat

It appears the flag that is unraveling from the new high will give another buying opportunity at about the 1031 level

and then it is off to races

just pick the best of the breed and hang on for dear life

"The Best Bull Market Ever!"

The Ride of a Life Time

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Default Trading Gold

This thread is for those who trade gold/silver based on technical analysis and rational fundamentals. Everyone is welcome, but please keep your posts on topic.

If you believe in conspiracies, cabals, the imminent collapse of the US economy, etc. that is fine. There are plenty of threads available. Likewise, if you are a buy and hold investor, gold bug, perma-bear, or troll - there are plenty of threads for you too.

I would like to start with a discussion of our approaches to trading this market. I'll start.

I am by no means a big league trader. My goal is extract between $500-$1000 per week from this market. It is not how I make my living, rather, it is a hobby that helps to pay for other indulgences. My long term investments are in realestate and several businesses that I own.

My basic strategy is to buy at resistance and sell at support. I typically trade around a core position if I feel there is an intermediate term trend. Otherwise, I close positions often.

Right now I only trade futures. Specifically, Full Size Gold/Silver for core positions and minis for day/swing trading.

It is my hope that there are other "traders" on this forum who will join this thread for the purposes of sharing their thoughts, strategies, indicators etc.

My only motivation is to improve my skills. If you share this motivation I look forward to your posts.

Gold Holders... Get the Best of Both Worlds!

"Grandpa, how'd you get so rich?"

"Well son, intially I had invested in gold, but I noticed a drove of people holding silver wanting to exchange at 60 for gold, then 50, then 45, then 40, and 35 and so on down to 15"

"Grandpa, why would so many silvers holders exchange for gold?"

"...because they weren't very bright...so most of us gold holders acquired all their potential wealth too"

Sorry..can't stand the silver forum right now...getting breath of fresh air over here in gold forum. I'm going to start buying gold to spite their potential wealth and lack of knowledge thereof.

An hour with Jim Rickards and the once and future money

ear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market intelligence analyst James G. Rickards of research firm Omnis Inc. made a long presentation to the "Rethinking the Future International Security Environment" conference held Dec. 7 in Washington by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University. The second half of Rickards' presentation elaborated on his recent incisive observations about gold, as expressed at King World News and elsewhere.

Rickards told the Johns Hopkins conference that he considers gold to be the secret economic weapon of the U.S. government, and he noted that devaluing currencies against gold in times of economic distress has been done frequently throughout history.

He said he expects the United States to avert the dollar's collapse by returning it to a gold standard or even to avert the collapse of currencies worldwide by sponsoring a new gold-backed international currency, with gold revalued to perhaps $4,000 per ounce under either scenario. During the question period at the end of his presentation Rickards asserted that the paper gold markets in New York and London have sold claims to far more gold than the sellers possess or likely can obtain and that those markets will crash and resort to cash settlement if enough buyers ever try to take delivery. Of course that has been one of GATA's main arguments lately.

Link to above...

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1292595937.php

Link to hour video of Rickards...

http://outerdnn.outer.jhuapl.edu/ret...tionVideo.aspx

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Gold, other

Gold, other metals fall as U.S. dollar rallies

NEW YORK (Nov 26) Gold and other metals futures fell Friday, as investors sold commodities and stocks and bought the U.S. dollar following renewed concerns over debt levels in the euro zone.

Stocks sell off on euro fearsStocks slump Friday amid continuing European sovereign-debt fears, even as Spain, Portugal continue to say they don't need bailouts. In the US, a better holiday season is widely expected. Rising tensions between North and South Korea, meanwhile, also pushed the dollar higher.

�Normally the headlines from Korea and the lower stock market would help gold, but the weaker euro [is] helping the dollar counters,� said George Gero, metals analyst at RBC Wealth Management, in a note.

Gold for December delivery slumped $17.10, or 1.3%, to $1,355.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract earlier hit an intraday low of $1,350.50 an ounce.

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and volumes are expected to remain thin on Friday during a shortened trading session for most markets. Floor trading for metals, however, kept its hours and settles at its regular 1:30 Eastern time. See slide show of so-called Black Friday shopping.

How SPDR brought gold to investingThe revolution that opened gold investing to the masses and helped spur a record-breaking bull market was hatched in an act of desperation by an obscure gold-mining trade group. �Extended Thanksgiving holidays will likely keep trade thin and the [metals] complex remains vulnerable to further pressure as traders look to lock in profits and maintain cash positions to cover margin requirements,� said James Moore, London-based analyst at Fast Markets, in a research note.

Also pressuring gold prices was a rally in the U.S. dollar.

�The main negative factor is the firm U.S. dollar, which has risen to its highest level in two months versus the euro,� wrote analysts at Commerzbank in a note to clients. �Furthermore, the increase in the margins for gold futures trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is also having an adverse effect.�

The dollar index , which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, rose 0.6% to 80.36.

Dollar strength tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices because it makes those commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Other metals futures also dropped sharply.

Silver for December delivery fell, to $26.77 an ounce in electronic trade.

GoldCore, however, has forecast silver has some ways to �catch up� with gold.

�Silver, unlike gold, remains well below its nominal high of just over $50/oz in 1980,� the firm stated in a research note. �Hedge funds and investors with a knowledge of the technicals are targeting this level and will likely continue buying and accumulating until the price level has been reached.�

Palladium for December delivery slumped 2.5% to $678 an ounce. December copper dropped 2 cents to $3.74 a pound.

Gold Drops

Gold Drops, Trimming Weekly Climb, as Strengthening Dollar Erodes Demand

LONDON (Nov 26) Gold declined in London, cutting a weekly gain, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Other precious metals dropped.

The dollar gained against the yen as North Korea�s state- run Korean Central News Agency said planned naval exercises by South Korea and the U.S. moved the peninsula �closer to the brink of war.� The greenback rose to a two-month high versus the euro amid concerns Europe�s sovereign-debt burdens are worsening. Gold, which reached a record $1,424.60 an ounce on Nov. 9, usually moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

�Bullion prices have been under pressure as a result of the decline in risk sentiment,� James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report. Still, gold may �remain underpinned by investment bargain hunting as investors look to diversify against the volatile macro-economic and geopolitical background.�

Immediate-delivery bullion lost $15.75, or 1.1 percent, to $1,359.60 an ounce at 11:42 a.m. in London. Prices are up 0.5 percent this week. The metal for February delivery was 1 percent lower at $1,361.40 on the Comex in New York. Floor trading was closed yesterday for Thanksgiving in the U.S. and electronic trades are booked with today�s for settlement purposes.

Bullion fell to $1,366.50 an ounce in the morning �fixing� in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,373.25 at yesterday�s afternoon fixing.

Irish Bailout

Borrowing costs for the euro region�s most-indebted nations are surging as Ireland�s acceptance of a bailout of its banking industry stokes speculation that other countries will have to seek aid. The Financial Times Deutschland reported that euro- area policy makers are pushing Portugal to seek assistance from a 750 billion-euro ($991 billion) bailout fund. The country isn�t being pressed to use the facility, an official at the office of Prime Minister Jose Socrates said.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said yesterday that while the size of a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund hasn�t yet been determined, an amount of around 85 billion euros �has been mentioned.� The government said this week it will cut spending by about 20 percent and raise taxes over the next four years.

�We are following the euro to a certain extent and the euro is back to its weak point,� said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. The Korean conflict �is still in the back of people�s minds. There�s a possibility of further conflict and that is helping to support gold.�

�Escalated Confrontation�

President Barack Obama has dispatched an aircraft carrier to take part in military drills in the Yellow Sea in a show of strength after North Korea this week shelled a South Korean island. North Korea warned that any �escalated confrontation� will lead to war, KCNA said in an e-mailed statement.

Explosive shots, coming from the direction of North Korea, were heard on South Korea�s Yeonpyeong Island today, said a spokesman at South Korea�s Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to be identified, citing military policy. The military is investigating, he said.

Eleven of 15 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 73 percent, said the metal will rise next week. One forecast lower prices and three were neutral.

Silver for immediate delivery in London fell 3.6 percent to $26.5875 an ounce. It reached a 30-year high of $29.36 on Nov. 9 and is up 58 percent this year.

Palladium dropped 4.7 percent to $665.50 an ounce. Platinum was 1.2 percent lower at $1,640.68 an ounce.

GOLD National Leaders Meeting, May 2010

GOLD National Leaders from around the world met in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, on May 15, 2010. Discussions focused on the planned revision of the GOLD guidelines to be released in 2011, a new slogan for World COPD Day 2010 to focus on spirometry, and dissemination guidelines.

Gold and money

History of gold

From the first discoveries of gold in ancient times, its beauty and the ease with which it could be worked have inspired craftsmen to use it to create ornaments, not just for adornment, but as potent symbols of wealth and power. The first pure gold coins were struck by King Croesus of Lydia (present-day Turkey) during his reign between 560 and 547 BC and gold coins have continued as legal tender since that time.
Mine production

It is known that the Egyptians mined gold before 2000 BC and the first coin containing gold was struck in the eighth century BC.

The best estimates available suggest that the total volume of gold mined over history is approximately 158,000 tonnes, of which around 65% has been mined since 1950. Production has been on a downward trend since 2001, due principally to the reduction in exploration budgets that accompanied the low gold price of the late 1990s and the consequent fall in the number of major new gold discoveries. Independent analysts believe mine output will remain relatively flat for the next few years. For a history of gold mining >>
Gold as a reserve asset

Central banks have been major holders of gold for more than 100 years and are expected to retain large stocks in future. They currently account for about 20% of above-ground stocks. The process of rebalancing reserve portfolios to adjust to changing conditions since the demise of the gold standard has led to a reduction in the amount of gold held by some central banks in the past ten years. This process may continue for some years to come. But the central banks have affirmed that gold will remain an important reserve asset for the foreseeable future and, importantly, since 1999 have accepted that sales be governed by international agreement.

Friday, November 26, 2010

History & Culture

One reason why gold is so revered throughout the world is that it’s got such an incredible history. From the ancient Egyptians to James Bond, from Homer’s ‘Odyssey’ to the Californian gold rush, gold has played a fascinating part in world history and culture for thousands of years.
Russian icon

Russian Orthodox gold icon depicting the Mother of God, St Iver and St Alexis , Moscow, Russia, 19th century.Enlarge >>

To help it all make sense, we’ve put together an overview, tracing the major people and events that shaped the history of gold. Chapters on the ancient civilizations (pre 400 AD), the middle ages (400 – 1400), the early modern years (1400 – 1800) and the modern period (1800 onwards) describe the eventful story of gold. You can also find some more detailed articles on pre-Columbian gold and gold production since the 1848 gold rush.

Gold

is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum, "shining dawn", hence adjective, aureate) and an atomic number of 79. It has been a highly sought-after precious metal for coinage, jewelry, and other arts since the beginning of recorded history. The native metal occurs as nuggets or grains in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, usually with tellurium. Gold metal is dense, soft, shiny and the most malleable and ductile pure metal known. Pure gold has a bright yellow color and luster traditionally considered attractive, which it maintains without oxidizing in air or water. Gold is one of the coinage metals and has served as a symbol of wealth and a store of value throughout history. Gold standards have provided a basis for monetary policies. It also has been linked to a variety of symbolisms and ideologies.

A total of 165,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, as of 2009.[1] This is roughly equivalent to 5.3 billion troy ounces or, in terms of volume, about 8,500 m³, or a cube 20.4 m on a side. The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

Although primarily used as a store of value, gold has many modern industrial uses including dentistry and electronics. Gold has traditionally found use because of its good resistance to oxidative corrosion and excellent quality as a conductor of electricity.

Chemically, gold is a transition metal. Compared with other metals, pure gold is chemically least reactive, resisting individual acids but being attacked by the acid mixture aqua regia, so named because it desolves gold. Gold also disolves in alkaline solutions of cyanide, which have been used in mining. Gold dissolves in mercury, forming amalgam alloys. Gold is insoluble in nitric acid, which dissolves silver and base metals, a property long been used to confirm the presence of gold in items, and this is the origin of the colloquial term "acid test", referring to a gold standard test for genuine value.